Novo Nordisk's stock is up 9% today and so far... 31% up this year. Today there was the Capital Market Day for investors, during which Novo Nordisk presented 3 main takeaways regarding anti-obesity drugs:
1) Wegovy® has unlocked the obesity care market yet a large unmet need remains.
NN (Novo Nordisk) achieved sales of anti-obesity drugs in the amount of DKK 42 billion in 2023 (Figure 1). But only 1 million patients out of 813 million take obesity medications today (Figure 2). And in 2030, this number will increase to 1,246 million people (adults) - Figure 3.
2) SELECT trial is a key differentiator with semaglutide 2.4 mg as the first and only AOM treatment with a proven CV benefit.
AOM stands for anti-obesity medications, CV is cardiovascular. Semaglutide treats not only obesity but also other obesity-related comorbidities. CVs are particularly important, as they may allow for more refinancing of treatment by payers. The SELECT population represents ca. 10% of the total obesity population. See Figure 4 and 5.
3) Pipeline and supply capacity support continued NN leadership in obesity.
NN presented its entire portfolio of anti-obesity drugs in development (Figure 6), but the most important for investors are the Phase 1 results for Amycretin - a once daily oral co-agonist - which causes weight loss by 13.1% after 12 weeks (Figure 7).
Amycretin uses the same GLP-1 hormone as other weight-loss drugs, such as NN's Wegovy or Eli Lilly's Zepbound. The key here is the fact that it also stimulates the amylin hormone, which regulates hunger. 13% weight loss is twice as good as in the case of subcutaneous Wegovy!
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