Potential GDP growth is the sum of the change in productivity and the change in population size. A growing population therefore means higher potential GDP growth. Descending population means lower GDP growth.
According to the UN projection, China's population will decrease by 160 million people by 2050, and by as much as 790 million people by 2100. This is more than a 55% decline compared to 2024 levels. See Figure 1.
In the case of China, the population decline by 2050 is "only" 11.3%. It will be much worse in Japan (-15.1% by 20250 - see Figure 2) and in Poland (-14.9% by 2050 - see Figure 3).
By 2050 the decline will be:
- in Italy 12.6% (Figure 4)
- in Germany 7.4% (Figure 5)
- across Europe 6.6% (Figure 6)
- in Spain 6.2% (Figure 7)
But there are countries where the population will grow until 2050:
- India +15.9% (+220 million people, Figure 8)
- USA +8.6% (+30 million people, Figure 9)
- France +2.5% (+1.7 million people, Figure 10)
Bonus charts, in one chart:
- China and India – Figure 11
- Europe and USA – Figure 12
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