Novo Nordisk and Elli Lilly benefit from the sale of weight-loss drugs. Investors also benefit, only this year the prices of these producers increased 2-3 times more than S&P500 or NYSE ARCA Pharmaceutical Index - see Figure 1.
The Novo Nordisk share price reacted a bit negatively to the earnings announced on May 2 this year (among others there was a miss on the Wegovy sales).
It is therefore worth checking how Wall Street's expectations regarding revenue growth have changed after the publication of financial results (when analysts had time to "digest" all the new data).
Figure 2 shows the change in the consensus for total revenues (we compare the consensus after the announced results for Q4 2023 (dated 19-Feb-2024), the consensus before the announcement of Q1 2024 results (19-Apr-2024) and the consensus after the announced results for Q1 2024 (8-May-2024).
Figure 3 shows this data in a zoom-in version. All-in-all analysts increased their revenue growth expectations for the subsequent 4 quarters by 1.5% (highlighted in green, at the bottom of the chart).
Figure 4 shows the consensus change for Wegovy: +5.4% higher revenues over the subsequent 4 quarters. That's quite positive!
Figure 5 shows the change in the consensus for Ozempic: only +0.1% - but sales in Q1 beat expectations by as much as 4.24%.
All in all, according to Wall Street, Novo Nordisk's revenues will grow faster than analysts expected before the results were published. The negative reaction of the stock price seems to be short-lived.
Bonus Charts: Figure 6 and 7 show sales growth of Eli Lilly's competitive drugs (Zepbound and Mounjaro), including published results for Q1 2024.
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