US March Payrolls. The market usually pays more attention to the month to month change in employment data, but several leading series indicate lower both wage and new jobs growth in H2 2024...
My key takeaways from recent data:
1) Challenger layoffs are quite elevated recently… third month in a row around 80-90k – see Figure 1,
2) Despite high employment growth, the annual change in wages is the lowest in 3 years, and the Quits rate (from the Jolts report) indicates a further decline in wage inflation in the following months - see Figure 2,
3) NFIB Small Business Hiring Plans Continue to Decline, now at 11% net – the lowest level in 4 years – Figure 3 i Figure 3a,
4) The unemployment rate dropped in the US from 3.9% to 3.8% (exactly by only 3bps from 3.86% to 3.83%), and in Canada it's the other way around... - Figure 4.
Since the bottom of the cycle, the unemployment rate in Canada has increased by 110 bps, and in the USA only 40 bps. Figure 5 shows a high correlation in the unemployment rates between the US and Canada.
Comments