When it comes to stronger asset prices at the end of the calendar year, such a seasonal effect is widely known in the case of the stock market (or at least expected by investors every year). In the case of the EURPLN exchange rate, it can be said that since 2017 the zloty has shown an annual tendency to strengthen against the euro (counting from October 31 to January 31 of each year) - see Figure 1. However, this does not apply to the years 2014-2016. In general, the zloty should be stronger when global stock markets are also stronger.
In the current year 2024, so far the zloty strengthened against the euro by 2% from October 31 to December 26 (however, it is currently at the same level as in September 2024).
Figure 2 shows the change in the EURPLN exchange rate from October 31 to January 31 in the years 2014-2023. Figure 3 shows the same, but each year has been rebased to the zloty level on October 31, 2024.
Figure 4 shows the change in the EURPLN exchange rate in 2024 relative to the 2014-2023 average, and the 2017-2023 average.
All in all, one can count on a seasonally stronger zloty (against the euro) in November/December, but this is not a strong and regular seasonal pattern.
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