Wall Street expects Q1 2024 revenue at $22.3 billion, representing a YoY decline of 4.4%, and sequentially (against Q4 2023) of 11.4%.
Since the publication of the results for Q4 2023, analysts have significantly lowered their forecasts for Tesla - Figure 1, and the share price has fallen by over 30% since then (Figure 2).
At the beginning of April, we also got data on deliveries and production in Q1 2024 – see Figure 3. Deliveries dropped by 20% QoQ (but there were several one-off events).
Tesla's main problem: high interest rates that reduce demand (cars are usually bought on credit) and relatively high prices of EV cars (even less demand).
What to pay special attention to in the Q1 2024 earnings:
1) Mainly EV demand and margins (price cuts), but also
2) Future growth driver like robotaxis
3) Full Self Driving (and recognition of deferred revenues)
4) Cybertruck demand, production etc.
5) And other things like Elon's compensation, workforce reductions, gigafactory expansion, mass-market vehicle.
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