Figure 1 shows the current (so post analysts' revisions after the publication of Q4 2023 results) consensus revenues forecast for 2024-2025.
Clearly, the world is not over for Tesla yet. On a YoY basis, revenues from Q3 2024 accelerate to approximately 20% YoY growth (quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024 we have growth of +6.6% - then between 2.2% and 6.3% QoQ).
If revenues are to grow by more than 20% (YoY) in Q3 2024, investors could try to front-run such growth in Q2…, ceteris paribus.
Figure 2 shows how Tesla's price behaved relative to the S&P500 after the publication of the earnings (last 5 quarters).
Max relative (to S&P500) drawdowns were:
After Q1-2023: -12.5%
After Q2-2023: -21.7%
After Q3-2023: -15.3%
After Q4-2023 to date: -12.3%.
But to better assess the price behavior immediately after the publication of the results, one should also look at the price behavior in the previous quarter and immediately before the publication of the results (as can be seen in Figure 2, there are significant differences in this respect). Additionally, one also need to look at the size of beat/miss of the results and the size of “beat/miss” of the company's outlook/guidance.
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Elon Musk during the results conference about the margin and demand for Tesla cars:
"If the interest rates come down quickly, I think margins will be good. And if they don't come down quickly, they won't be that good, yeah. It's always important to remember that the vast majority of people buying a car is about the monthly payment. It's not that people don't want -- we have tons of -- we have lots of people who want to buy our car but simply cannot afford it. (…) It's straightforward pretty. And there are no tricks around -- to get around this.”
And about Cybertruck:
“It's important to emphasize that this is very much a production-constrained situation, not a demand-constrained situation. And we you know, obviously, like, we could dramatically raise the price, but that -- that doesn't feel right to us to sort of, you know, gouge people for, you know, for early delivery, so. But really, the demand is off the hook. As long, as long as the price is affordable, I mean, I see us ultimately delivering on the order of a quarter million -- something like a quarter million Cybertrucks a year in North America, but maybe more, give or take, you know, roughly on that -- on that time frame.”
The consensus expects Cybertruck production to reach 112k annual run-rate in Q4 2024 and 155k annual run-rate in Q4 2025.
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