It is interesting how quickly recent macro data slowed down economic growth in the US.
It is best to look at the Atlanta FED GDP Now model, whose GDP growth forecast in Q2 2024 dropped in two weeks from 4.17% (May 14) to 1.85% (June 3).
Consumer PCE spending slowed from 3.94% to 1.75%.
PCE Goods dropped from 4.22% to 0.73%.
PCE Services dropped to 2.25% (even from 5.24% in April).
However, GPDI has not changed so much, except for Residential, which is now declining at a rate of -4.36% (it was +14% in April).
Attached are some charts:
Figure 1 – GDP tracker vs 10Y yield
Figure 2, 3 and 4 – PCE trackers
Figure 5 – GDPI, Figure 6 – Residential
Figure 7 – contributions to GDP Q2 growth (as of 3-Jun-2023).
