US home prices
28-Nov-2023. US Home Prices are up for the 8th straight month in September. The S&P/Case-Shiller US Home Price Index is up by 0.65% in September (Figure 1), and nominally +45.45% since December 2019 (Figure 2). Despite high inflation, since December 2019 US real home prices are up as much as 22.3%. This gives an incredible real annualized rate of 5.52%! The annual change of house prices is also accelerating - Figure 3. Nominally, it's 3.95%, and in real terms we are back in the black with an annual change of 0.25%.
PL nominal prices (Q3-2023)
3-Dec-2023. Nominal Home Prices in Poland. Recently, the National Bank of Poland has published home prices in Poland for Q3 2023. In Warsaw, transactional prices in Q3 2023 (Figure 1): PLN 13,980/m2 (primary market, EUR 3,221/m2) PLN 12,629/m2 (secondary market, EUR 2,910/m2) In the 7 largest Polish cities (Figure 2): PLN 11,982/m2 (primary market, EUR 2,760/m2) PLN 10,827/m2 (secondary market, EUR 2,495/m2) So overall transactional home prices are (my calculation, Figure 3 shows YoY change): Warsaw PLN 13,329/m2 (EUR 3,071/m2), +3.99% YoY 7 Cities PLN 11,425/m2 (EUR 2,633/m2), +3.68% YoY
PL real prices (Q3-2023)
3-Dec-2023. Real Home Prices in Poland. Cumulative inflation in Poland from Q4 2019 to Q3 2023 amounted to +37.8% (Polish Consumer Price Index, All-Items, quarterly data). That's why it's worth looking at real home prices as well. Figure 1. From Q1 2022 till Q3 2023 nominal home prices in Warsaw are up 8.21%, however in real terms they dropped 9.64%. Figure 2 shows the annual change of real and nominal home prices in Warsaw. Figure 3 also shows inflation since 2006. For the last 17 years, the annualized rate was: - for nominal home prices +4.90% - for real home prices +1.34% - and inflation +3.51%
US home prices (Aug-2023)
31-Oct-2023. S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. Today we got the reading for August 2023 and house prices increased +0.90% MoM nominally and +0.27% in real terms. This is the 7th consecutive month of nominal price growth (previously we had 7 negative months). Since December 2019, prices have increased nominally by 44.6% (and in real terms by 22.1%). House prices continue to perform remarkably well in an environment of such high interest rates.
US home prices vs S&P500
19-Jun-2023. US: S&P500 vs Home Price Index.. Who wins? Since 1975, the annual rate of return for the S&P500 (excluding dividends) has been 8.88%. Comparable rate of return for S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. The National Home Price Index is 5.25% (excluding rental income). Interestingly, the current drawdown in house prices is only 2.98% (with the Fed rate over 5%), and the last two months of data (February and March this year) house prices have increased ... and are only 2.29% below the peak from June 2022. At the same time, the S&P500 corrected 25.4% and now the S&P500 is only 8.07% below its January 2022 high. The next data on house prices for April this year will be released on June 27…
PL nominal prices (Q1-2023)
20-Jun-2023. W Polsce też obecnie mamy korektę na cenach mieszkań. W Warszawie na rynku wtórnym ceny spadły od górki 6,1%. Natomiast w „7 miastach” ceny transakcyjne na rynku wtórnym spadły 2,5%. Co ciekawe na rynku pierwotnym nie ma specjalnie spadków cen (jeszcze). W Warszawie ceny na rynku wtórnym są niższe (Q1 2023) o 7,2% w porównaniu do rynku pierwotnego (praktycznie największe dyskonto w historii danych). Źródło: NBP
PL real prices (Q1-2023)
21-Jun-2023. Realne ceny mieszkań w Warszawie spadły już 17,4% (od ostatniej górki z Q3 2021 roku). Od Q3 2006 do Q1 2023 nominalnie ceny transakcyjne (rynek wtórny) w Warszawie rosły w tempie 3,98% rocznie, ale ponieważ inflacja w tym samym okresie rosła rocznie 3,48% - stąd proste wyliczenie, że realnie ceny mieszkań rosły jedynie w tempie 0,48% rocznie. Te marne 0,48% rocznie powinno w ciągu następnych 3-4 kwartałów spaść poniżej zera! To skutek rosnącej inflacji!
